GENEVA, May 20 – In relation to some of the recent media and social media reporting, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) wishes to clarify that, in several instances, the
paper on climate scenarios
authored by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (
https://wcrp-cmip.org/mips/scenariomip/
), which inputs assumptions to part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) process, has been incorrectly attributed to the IPCC.
The
paper belongs to the broader body of scientific literature produced by the
international research community, under the coordination of the World Climate
Research Program, not the IPCC. It aims at producing a set of future
illustrative scenarios that can be used by climate modellers to simulate the
response of the Earth System to common greenhouse gas emissions.
The IPCC does not
conduct its own research, run models or make measurements. It does not own the
scenarios described in the mentioned paper, nor does it own any of the
scenarios assessed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The IPCC’s role is to
assess the available scientific, peer-reviewed literature relevant to climate
change, currently running at approximately 50,000 papers and studies per year.
The mentioned paper is within the scope of the IPCC’s next assessment.
Some of the recent media and social media reporting has focused on the scenario known as SSP5-8.5, previously referred to as RCP8.5. This was one of five illustrative scenarios (the most extreme in emissions until 2100) assessed in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report covering the range of possible future developments of drivers of climate change found in the scientific literature, and
is further explained in IPCC AR6 Working Group I FAQ page
.
The
illustrative scenarios included in AR6 describe potential society and emission evolutions
starting in 2015. More recent literature reflecting the last decade of developments,
such as CMIP7 scenarios, will be considered in the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7).
IPCC’s
Sixth Assessment Report stated that human activities, principally through
emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with
global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020.
Continued greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with
the best estimate of reaching 1.5°C in the near term in considered scenarios
and modelled pathways.
The
IPCC’s last report also warned that every increment of global warming will
intensify multiple and concurrent hazards. Deep, rapid, and sustained
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a discernible slowdown in
global warming within around two decades and also to discernible changes in
atmospheric composition within a few years.
During the current,
seventh assessment cycle, IPCC will once again assess new contributions to the
scientific literature, including the mentioned paper.
In order to avoid the
risk of pre‑empting the outcomes of its assessment process, IPCC does not
comment on individual papers or publications.
For more information, contact:
IPCC Press Office, Email:
ipcc-media@wmo.int
;
Andrej Mahecic, +41 22 730 8516; Werani Zabula, +41 22 730 8120.
Notes for editors
What is the IPCC?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the UN body for
assessing the science related to climate change. It was established by the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide political leaders with periodic
scientific assessments concerning climate change, its implications and risks,
as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation strategies. In the same
year the UN General Assembly endorsed the action by the WMO and UNEP in jointly
establishing the IPCC. It has 195 member states.
Thousands of people from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC.
For the assessment reports, experts volunteer their time as IPCC authors to
assess the thousands of scientific papers published each year to provide a
comprehensive summary of what is known about the drivers of climate change, its
impacts and future risks, and how adaptation and mitigation can reduce those
risks.
The IPCC has three working groups:
Working Group I
, dealing
with the physical science basis of climate change;
Working Group II
, dealing
with impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and
Working Group III
,
dealing with the mitigation of climate change. It also has a
Task Force on
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
that develops methodologies for
measuring emissions and removals.
IPCC assessments provide governments, at all levels, with scientific
information that they can use to develop climate policies. IPCC assessments are
a key input into the international negotiations to tackle climate change. IPCC
reports are drafted and reviewed in several stages, thus guaranteeing
objectivity and transparency.
About the Seventh Assessment Cycle
Comprehensive scientific assessment reports are published every 5 to 7 years.
The IPCC is currently in its seventh assessment cycle, which formally began in
July 2023 with the elections of the new
IPCC and Task Force Bureaus
at the
IPCC’s Plenary Session in Nairobi.
At its first Plenary Session in the seventh assessment cycle – the 60th
Plenary Session in Istanbul, Türkiye, in January 2024 – the Panel agreed to
produce in this cycle the three Working Group contributions to the Seventh
Assessment Report (AR7), namely the Working Group I report on the Physical
Science Basis, the Working Group II report on Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability and the Working Group III report on Mitigation of Climate Change.
The Synthesis Report of the Seventh Assessment Report will be produced after
the completion of the Working Group reports and released by late 2029.
During its 62nd Plenary Session held in Hangzhou, China, in February
2025, the Panel has agreed on the outlines of the three Working Group
contributions to the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7).
At the Panel’s most recent Plenary Session in Lima, Peru, in October
2025, member governments agreed on the scientific content of the
2027 Methodology Report on Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies,
Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage
. There, the Panel also agreed on
the 2026 workplan for the three Working Group contributions to the Seventh
Assessment Report.
The Panel decided already during the previous cycle to produce a Special Report
on Climate Change and Cities and a Methodology Report on Short-lived Climate
Forcers during AR7.
At the IPCC’s 61st Plenary Session held in Sofia, Bulgaria, from 27 July to 2
August 2024, the Panel agreed upon the outlines for the
Special Report on Climate Change and Cities
scheduled
for approval and publication in March 2027 and for the
2027 IPCC Methodology Report on Inventories for Short-lived
Climate Forcers
scheduled for publication in the second half 2027.
In addition, a revision of the 1994 IPCC Technical Guidelines on impacts
and adaptation as well as adaptation indicators, metrics and guidelines, will
be developed in conjunction with the Working Group II report and published as a
separate product.
IPCC’s latest report, the Sixth Assessment Report, was completed in March 2023
with the release of its Synthesis Report, which provided direct scientific
input to the First Global Stocktake process under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change at COP28 in Dubai.
For more information
visit
www.ipcc.ch
.
— Source: IPCC (https://www.ipcc.ch/2026/05/20/ipcc-news-comment-scenarios/)