CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY
Copenhagen, Denmark, 21 May 2026
Your Excellencies,
distinguished colleagues, ladies and gentlemen,
As Chair of IPCC, I thank our
hosts for the invitation to address this session.
You all know what IPCC is and
what it does, but let me just emphasise our unique capacity to assess the vast
and exponentially growing body of knowledge on climate change, its impacts, and
available responses. While every individual scientific paper matters, IPCC can
place them in the context of the overall body of evolving knowledge.
And
with that, let me cut straight to the topic of this session. At current levels
of warming, we can already see the effects
of extreme events, including intense heat, wildfires, flooding, heavy rainfall
and tropical cyclones. These cause disruption and devastation, highlighting the
vulnerability of our globally interconnected societies. Meanwhile, sea level
rise is inexorable, posing existential risks to those most exposed.
It is now almost inevitable
that we will soon exceed global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius above
pre-industrial levels, the warming level beyond which risks start to
accelerate. The urgent need to enhance resilience and step up adaptation
efforts is obvious. Our Sixth Assessment Report concluded that adaptation
progress has been made across all sectors and regions, but that progress has
been unevenly distributed with observed adaptation gaps.
Three degrees of warming,
consistent with current mitigation policies, will have disastrous consequences.
As we emphasised in the Sixth Assessment Report, every fraction of a degree of
warming matters.
In principle, it is possible in
the long-term to return warming to 1.5 degrees. But many climate impacts are
irreversible. Mid-century warming levels on the pathway towards net zero matter,
not just those achieved at the end of the century.
So, what is IPCC is planning
for the current cycle? The word “adaptation” appears in three chapter titles of
the Working Group II report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. This is
actually three times more than in the sixth assessment cycle. This signals clearly
a new emphasis on climate action. We have chapters which have not appeared in
previous reports on “responses to losses and damages” and finance.
And, we are also updating Technical
Guidelines, dating from 1994, on assessing impacts and adaptation. Compared to mitigation, adaptation has lacked
the means to measure progress. Adaptation actions are more difficult to
separate from broader patterns of investment in infrastructure and development.
The update will emphasise indicators, metrics and methodologies. These should provide
useful guidance on planning, including mainstreaming adaptation of a more
transformational character into existing policies and practices. The guidelines
will address learning, monitoring and evaluation, including adaptation targets,
as well as metrics and indicators to monitor and track progress, uptake and
performance.
Already, it is evident to the
authors that many bodies have already made progress in developing a variety of guidelines
for assessing impacts and adaptation. The challenge for the updated Technical
Guidelines may lie in assessing existing approaches, rather than starting from
scratch.
The target audience for the
guidelines includes, obviously, negotiators with their interest in the Global
Goal on Adaptation and indicators to measure progress. But other important audiences
include policymakers and practitioners at the national and sub-national levels
who plan infrastructure and implement adaptation measures on the ground.
Your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen,
To finish, a few words on
progress with the IPCC Seventh Cycle. All Working Groups have started work and are
busy preparing their First Order Drafts for Expert Review. Working Group II on impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability is holding its second lead author meeting in the
Bahamas as we speak. The combined government and expert review of a Special
Report of Special Report on Climate Change and Cities began two weeks ago. That
report is scheduled for release next March.
We know that the Working Group
Reports will start to appear in mid-2028, but the full timeline has yet to be
decided. We have just opened a consultation on criteria for assessing timeline
options with a view to reaching a decision at the IPCC’s next Plenary in
October.
Speaking as a scientist, and on
behalf of IPCC authors, I have one plea. And that is for certainty. Our 660 authors
take time out from their day jobs, conducting research and teaching the next
generation, to volunteer their services to IPCC. As the seventh cycle gathers
pace, uncertainty is the biggest challenge to their sustained engagement.
I take this opportunity to invite
the policymakers at this conference to support IPCC in bringing this debate to
a conclusion.
Thank you.
— Source: IPCC (https://www.ipcc.ch/2026/05/20/ipcc-chair-jim-skea-2026-copenhagen-ministerial/)